The Rise and Fall of Technology and Its Benefits

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In recent months, the technology sector has experienced a remarkable surge, creating a stark contrast with traditional sectors such as dividends and consumption, drawing attention to a significant shift in market dynamics. Investors are navigating through a complex landscape where technology stocks are earning heightened interest and attracting an influx of capital.

On February 21, the STAR Market 50 Index, a key gauge of innovative tech stocks, soared by 5.97%, bringing its year-to-date gains to an impressive 10.7%. However, this performance was not enough to place it among the top five across the entire A-share index. Other notable indices, including the STAR 200 and STAR 100, enjoyed even more remarkable performances with year-to-date increases of 17.83% and 16.41% respectively. In stark contrast, the once-popular dividend strategy has been sidelined, with the Dividend Index and two other major dividend indices trailing behind the broader market.

Experts in the industry who shared insights with reporters suggest that the current wave of technology-driven market excitement diverges markedly from the trends observed back in September of the previous year. This time, an array of influential events and sentiments has converged, consolidating funds into the technology sector. As profit-making opportunities have increased, more conservative investors, who previously adhered to dividend and consumption-based strategies, have begun to dip their toes into the tech arena. Various reports from sell-side institutions project that sectors like AI continue to promise substantial returns in the medium term; however, as trading density grows, a correction could be on the horizon at any moment.

The atmosphere has certainly changed with significant announcements such as the collaboration between tech giants Alibaba and Apple, and Tencent's WeChat integrating DeepSeek to explore AI applications in real-life scenarios, contributing to bolstered market sentiment. The thrill of technology stocks overshadowed traditional sectors, leading to an extravagant leap in select tech stocks following the February rally. New indices covering AI, robotics, and cloud computing have recorded staggering gains of over 40%, with DeepSeek itself reflecting an impressive rise exceeding 73%. Meanwhile, older industries like coal and duty-free concessions have felt the chill, with their respective indices dropping by nearly 10%.

In a striking contrast, a review of the latest trading data reveals that as of February 21, an astounding 975 individual stocks reached new highs in the past month, predominantly in the electronic, communication, media, software, and semiconductor sectors. Conversely, 101 stocks hit new lows, with 19 boasting market capitalizations exceeding ¥100 billion, primarily located within the oil, petrochemical, coal, electricity, and transportation sectors. Notable giants such as China Petroleum and China Oilfield Services have seen declines around 10% since the year's outset, exemplifying the struggles faced by established players as retail investors flock to the allure of tech-driven stocks.

In addition to the downturn in "state-owned enterprises" and cyclical industries, blue-chip companies within consumer goods and appliances have also struggled. Brands like Midea, Haier, and Yanjing Beer have significantly underperformed compared to the Dividend Index, which has already seen a 5.81% drop this year. A strategist from a brokerage remarked that the fluctuation between new highs and lows in stocks reflects overall market sentiment. With the face of defensive attributes of dividend stocks evaporating post-Chinese New Year, it becomes evident that capital is swiftly reallocating towards technology, creating a palpable contrast across sectors.

With the rapid ascent of the technology sector, the effects of overcrowded trading may accumulate, leading to calls for caution regarding potential corrections. Traditional metrics like Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios have often taken a backseat in conversations surrounding tech investments. Yet, alarmingly high valuations, a likely deviation from the underlying fundamentals, indicate potential risks. Data until February 21 shows that 728 stocks have PE ratios exceeding 100. In particular, industries such as electronics and software have dominated this trend, which could indicate unsustainable price inflation.

A number of high-profile technology stocks have witnessed valuations that some market watchers arbitrate as “dream ratios.” For instance, Sanfeng Intelligent has seen its PE soar over 40,000, boasting an impressive upward performance yet reporting minimal profitability. Meanwhile, prominent semiconductor companies like Zhongke Weimeng have also increased significantly, despite fears of inflated valuations that far exceed traditional benchmarks.

Within this dynamic environment, a number of recent announcements regarding stake reductions from shareholders in leading sectors reflected potential overheating risks. Companies like Jucheng Technology and Yingfang Software disclosed plans to reduce their holdings, which amplified concerns among investors about unsustainable momentum within the tech space. Following substantial gains, shareholders may seek to capitalize on profits, shifting attention back to the fundamentals that have previously driven this market.

Amidst this whirlwind of activity, many professionals highlight the clear influence of both liquidity and sentiment on market performance. The performance seen within the Hong Kong tech space has demonstrated a leading pattern, as established indices approach higher territory previously reached during the intense trading period of September Last year. Several key players have significantly contributed to the gains, reinforcing the correlation between stock volatility and macroeconomic conditions.

The upcoming earnings announcements will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in sustaining or reshaping the current narrative. Investment specialists recommend a diversified approach, advising investors to balance their exposure across various market segments, particularly in light of AI's advanced growth trajectory. Evaluating how fiscal policy changes influence sectors such as consumer spending, real estate development, and foreign trade will be crucial during this transitional phase.

Recent reports suggest that the current technology-driven rally may continue to exhibit upward potential, as the momentum within certain segments remains robust. Analysts expect cyclical movements within tech sectors, indicating that while there may be short-term fluctuations, opportunities for long-term investments will still flourish, especially in the burgeoning fields of artificial intelligence and related technologies.

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